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Increasing concerns have emerged about the possibility of armed conflict involving East African neighbours, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as confrontational discourse has intensified in the past few weeks.

What Did Ethiopia Declared?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for access to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has sparked a fierce rhetorical conflict.

PM Abiy Ahmed first openly declared in 2023 that his government's access to the sea was an existential matter, statements that Eritrean authorities rejected.

Relations between the both governments have regularly been difficult. After a prolonged battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) maritime frontage, officially seceded from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, rendering it without sea access.

In 1998, a border war started in which over a hundred thousand people died.

Recent Comments from Ethiopian Government

Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have directly stated ownership of Eritrean maritime facility of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the frontier - and implied the intention to capture it through military means.

Recently, the Prime Minister said the country's "blunder" of losing entry to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrea secession would be "corrected tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that the port was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrean Response to the Claims

In the face of continuous warnings from Ethiopian officials, Asmara's position has been restricted to short statements on social media from Communications Head the minister.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for sea access describing it as "risky" and a "harmful plan" of "expansionism" – a policy of claiming back former lands.

The information ministry alerted on mid-September that moves to validate "flagrant aggression" would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Preparations on the Region

So far, there are few indications of major military movements in the frontier regions between the both nations.

Nevertheless, in the country, national TV has broadcast completion events of thousands of cadets at various military training camps.

The director of staff section of the armed forces, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, recently said in an interview that the military was in a "reliable position" as "tens of thousands of recruits" were enlisting, which he said was "a warning to our opponents".

Previous Roots of the Tension

For decades from 1890, the territory was ruled by Italian colonisers.

Following the end of Italian rule, it was then controlled by the British military before evolving into a federated part of Ethiopia.

Yet in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor ended this arrangement and the region became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long civil war ensued, concluding with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Sovereignty was then confirmed by Eritreans in a vote in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they fell out over the specific demarcation of their mutual frontier, leading to war in 1998.

Although this finished in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the two nations continued at loggerheads.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made overtures to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The both leaders signed a declaration that the war was concluded – a decision that gained Abiy the prestigious award.

The two governments were then allies in Ethiopia's recent internal conflict in the northern region.

But relations have later worsened again.