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China has sent its coast guard into the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near outlying Japanese territory as China ramps up strains over the Japan's leader's remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “reunification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has land just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the maritime patrol, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said China had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from China since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.