Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
